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Machine Learning and the Search for Lead Pipes in Flint Michigan by Jacob Abernethy & Eric Schwartz - Shared screen with speaker view
Lucas Chu
12:35
Example Press: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/01/how-machine-learning-found-flints-lead-pipes/578692/
Lucas Chu
23:23
https://www.mdst.club/
Eric Michael Schwartz
24:42
Thanks for putting the links here, Lucas!
Lucas Chu
24:55
http://www.mywater-flint.com/
Lucas Chu
55:31
In the satellite photo, one home has a 94% chance of having lead or galvanized steel service lines right next to a 21%. How come/What were the largest determinants in the model?
Eric Michael Schwartz
57:07
Great question, Lucas! Yes, there are house-to-house variability due to many factors. The year the home was built is a big one, the value of the home also is an indicator,
Eric Michael Schwartz
01:05:05
We also use the water testing samples if available, the old historical records suggesting what the material may be, and all other information about the location of the home.
Lucas Chu
01:07:45
quick maths shows about $21m could have been saved had they used the model. (A 82% hit rate dropped to 15% hit rate on 10531 digs with $5k for replacement and $3k for no replacement. So AECOM spent roughly $53m on replacements and $31.5m on testing pipes that weren't lead or galvanized steel)
Lucas Chu
01:08:03
I'm assuming we don't know what company installed the pipes based on the year the home was built?Also, couldn't they have improved the water instead of the lines (e.g. add orthophosphates and increased the pH)?
Lucas Chu
01:10:32
https://www.flintpipemap.org/map
Eric Michael Schwartz
01:11:28
Lucas that’s great back-of-the-envelope math to generate those estimated. I think that’s roughly right!
Eric Michael Schwartz
01:11:44
And yes, we don’t know what company installed them in the fast majority of cases.
Eric Michael Schwartz
01:11:52
We do know the year they were installed in most cases.
Lucas Chu
01:11:53
What's next for https://www.blueconduit.com/? Do you know which other cities have most lead pipes?
Lucas Chu
01:13:41
To be fair, there were fetal death rates: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/11/the-awful-legacy-of-lead/545330/
B. Aditya Prakash
01:14:53
Sorry got to go. Great talk Eric and Jake!