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Seminar in the Economics of Science & Engineering | Mike Handel (BLS,DOL) | "Occupational Projections, Automation, and the Future of Work" - Shared screen with speaker view
Charles Fadel
29:47
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2018/01/02/will-robots-take-our-jobs/ "many economists see the current wave of new technology and automation as a trend that has been occurring for most of human history, and one that will continue in the future"
Charles Fadel
30:21
The challenge is in equipping future workers with the skills they need to be competitive and productive in a changing economy.
Charles Fadel
33:27
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=robots%2Cjobs%2C+employment&year_start=1800&year_end=2019&corpus=26&smoothing=3&direct_url=t1%3B%2Crobots%3B%2Cc0%3B.t1%3B%2Cjobs%3B%2Cc0%3B.t1%3B%2Cemployment%3B%2Cc0
Charles Fadel
40:13
70% of progress is due to processing power, 20% to data bases, 10% to improved algos...
Charles Fadel
47:08
OECD as well
Charles Fadel
49:45
and even Socrates talked about it.....
Charles Fadel
01:00:00
Having looked into this since the late eighties, I have 2 comments:
Charles Fadel
01:00:38
1) Punctuated equilibria: every 2 decades we hit an acceleration then a plateau and
Charles Fadel
01:01:23
2) the algos work in "BOUNDED" problems with carefully chosen data, narrow rules, and zero transfer.
Charles Fadel
01:05:27
Yes, robots need Psychomotor skills too :)
Charles Fadel
01:06:24
So: low Transfer
Charles Fadel
01:07:05
That said, GPT-3 is intriguing
Charles Fadel
01:14:34
3) there is also the confusion between Task and Occupation: just because a task is automated doesn't mean the entire occupation goes away; occupations usually are not monotonic and require many tasks, and the "glue" between tasks is very hard to automate
Adam Wood
01:16:08
Correct. There’s a human element to be considered irrespective of cognitive routinized v. Cognitive non-routinized tasking.
Charles Fadel
01:17:20
4) there is also the financial incentive: just because something can be automated does not mean it gets so.
Vinet Sharma
01:19:46
What will be impact of automation at informal jobs, emerging economies and hierarchy of jobs where top level and junior jobs are interrelated
Charles Fadel
01:24:36
and is that 0.9% not statistically within the error bar of the analysis?
Ellie Okada
01:35:07
Regarding ONET score: Do ONET scores fully include inputs from marginalized workforce ? (: who are no willing to provide inputs or not tolerate to provide inputs)